EVs Electricity Demand

The adoption of EVs is expected to increase.

Advancements in technology, declining costs, policies, and the expansion of charging infrastructure have encouraged adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally (International Energy Agency (IEA) 2024d, Muratori & Mai 2021). In 2023, one in ten new car registrations was an electric car in the U.S. (IEA 2024d). The same year, the number of new EV registrations reached 1.4 million.

It is predicted that annual new consumer EV sales in the U.S. will be 8.8 million in 2030 and about 11 million in 2035 (IEA 2024d). Because of adopted heavy-duty emissions regulations, annual sales of electric bus and commercial truck are also expected to grow to about 97,000 and 420,000 respectively in 2035 (IEA 2024c).

Used EV markets are also emerging as more used electric cars enter the resale market (IEA 2024d). In 2023, the used EV market amounted to nearly 400,000 vehicles in the U.S. Over half of used electric cars are priced below $30,000, and the average price is expected to drop to $25,000. Starting in January 1st 2023, individuals buying a qualified used EV for $25,000 or less from a licensed dealer may be eligible for the Used Clean Vehicle tax credit of up to $4,000 (Internal Revenue Service 2025).

Electricity demand is expected to increase with growing EV adoption.

In 2023, EVs represented 0.5% of global electricity consumption, using roughly 130 TWh (terawatt-hours) (IEA 2024a, IEA 2024d). Growing EV adoption will increase electricity demand, with a total EV global electricity demand increase of 6-8% by 2035 (IEA 2024d).

Analysis of EV electricity consumption is modeled under two policy scenarios considering historical data through 2023, policies in place, and commitments announced by the end of March 2024 (IEA 2024a). The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is a conservative scenario that takes into account existing policies, while the Announced Pledge Scenarios (APS) is an optimistic scenario based on higher ambitious climate targets. By 2030, STEPS and APS models predict that U.S. EV electricity consumption could reach 283 TWh or 319 TWh respectively (IEA 2024c, Figure 1). By 2035, STEP and APS predict electricity consumption by EVs could rise to 651 or 721 TWh respectively.

Figure 1. Projected U.S. EV electricity consumption. STEPS and APS total projected U.S. EV electricity consumption (TWh) includ-ing cars, buses, trucks and vans in 2025, 2030 and 2035. Data from IEA 2024c.

Charging solutions and energy capturing technology can address electricity demand.

Apart from the electricity required, location and timing of EV charging are factors to consider as unmanaged charging can cause peak demand surges (IEA 2024d, Muratori & Mai 2021). EV demand surges strain the grid and accelerate damage to the infrastructure (Jenn & Highleymann 2022). In the U.S., about 83% of EV charging is done at home, which could result in evening peak demands as individuals charge their cars after working hours (IEA 2024d). Strategies like time of day price variation and charging management could help handle demand. Managing EV charging involves deciding when to start, stop, or adjust charging based on grid conditions, while guaranteeing that it is charged when the customer needs it (U.S. Department of Energy 2024).

Technologies to capture energy from roads have gained attention for their potential to generate renewable power from moving vehicles or road environment (Warsi & Kumar 2024, Gholikhani et al. 2020, Zabihi & Saffi 2020, Ahmad et al. 2019). However, they are in development stages, and most have not been deployed in a suitable location (Zabihi & Saffi 2020):

• Piezoelectric materials transform vibrations into electricity and electricity into vibrations (Liu & Wang 2019, Zao et al. 2015, Ye et al. 2009). They are primarily suitable for powering LED lights and embedded roadway sensors (Ahmad et al. 2019).
• Electromagnetic technologies capture energy from traffic movement to produce electricity and can be used in remote areas where the power grid is unavailable (Warsi & Kumar 2024, Gholikhani et al. 2020). They can power streetlights, wireless connections, and operate equipment (Warsi & Kumar 2024, Zabihi & Saffi 2020).
• Thermoelectric technology captures heat from the pavement surface and is best suited for roadway sensors and remote monitoring systems (Gholikhani et al. 2020).
• Placing solar PV panels on pavement surfaces can convert solar radiation into electricity to power local infrastructure, adjacent buildings, or be supplied to the grid (Ahmad et al. 2019). They are already used on roadsides as PV noise barriers and solar-powered street lighting.

References

Ahmad S, Abdul Mujeebu M, Farooqi MA (2019) Energy harvesting from pavements and roadways: A comprehensive review of technologies, materials, and challenges. International Journal of Energy Research, 43(6): 1974-2015. https://doi.org/10.1002/er.4350.

Gholikhani M, Roshani H, Dessouky S, Papagiannakis AT (2020) A critical review of roadway energy harvesting technologies. Applied Energy, 261:114388. https://lan-inc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Hossein-Roshani-Paper.pdf.

Internal Revenue Service (IRS) (2025) Used Clean Vehicle Credit. https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/used-clean-vehicle-credit

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024a) Electricity demand resulting from the use of electric vehicles, 2023, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electricity-demand-resulting-from-the-use-of-electric-vehicles-2023. Licence: CC BY 4.0

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024b) Global Energy and Climate Model Documentation - 2024. Link

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024c) Global EV Data Explorer. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-ev-data-explorer

International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024d) Global EV Outlook 2024. Moving towards increased affordability. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a9e3544b-0b12-4e15-b407-65f5c8ce1b5f/GlobalEVOutlook2024.pdf

Jenn A., Highleyman J (2022) Distribution grid impacts of electric vehicles: a California case study. iScience, 25: 103686. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2021.103686.

Liu X, Wang J (2019) Performance exploration of a radially layered cymbal piezoelectric energy harvester under road traffic induced low frequency vibration. In IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering 2019, 542(1): 012075. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/542/1/012075/meta

Muratori M, Mai T (2021) The shape of electrified transportation. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1): 01 1003. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcb38

Muratori M, Alexander M, Arent D, Bazilian M, Cazzola P, Dede EM, Farrell J, Gearhart C, Greene D, Jenn A, Keyser M (2021) The rise of electric vehicles—2020 status and future expectations. Progress in Energy, 3(2):022002. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2516-1083/abe0ad

U.S. Department of Energy (2024). Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Grid Report to Congress. Link

Warsi MH, Nandha Kumar T (2024) Advances in energy harnessing techniques for smart highways: a review. Electrical Engineering, 106(5): 6389-6408. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00202-024-02379-8

Wood E, Borlaug B, Moniot M, Lee DY, Ge Y, Yang F, Liu Z (2023) The 2030 national charging network: Estimating US light-duty demand for electric vehicle charging infrastructure. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/85654.pdf.

Yip A, Hoehne C, Jadun P, Ledna C, Hale E, Muratori M (2023) Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy23osti/83916.pdf

Zabihi N, Saafi M (2020) Recent developments in the energy harvesting systems from road infrastructures. Sustainability,12(17): 6738. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/17/6738.

Zhao H, Qin L, Ling J (2015) Test and analysis of bridge transducers for harvesting energy from asphalt pavement. International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology, 4(1):17-28. https://doi.org/10.1260/2046-0430.4.1.17.