Truth in Sentencing and Recidivism

MO sets minimum sentences and time-served requirements. 

Mandatory minimum (MM) sentences set a fixed minimum number of years for specific crimes (Robina Institute 2018). Truth-in-sentencing (TIS) laws require that an offender serves a minimum percentage of their sentence before they are eligible for parole (Burke et al 2019). MM and TIS laws are intended to deter crime, impose consistent sentences, and stop violent offenders (Loeffler and Nagin 2022, National Academies 2014, Ulmer et al 2007, Parent et al 1997). However, the impact of MM and TIS laws on these goals is unclear. 

MO sets MM sentence lengths based on offense severity or classification (RSMo 558.011). Time-served or TIS requirements range from 30-80% and are determined by prior criminal history, with one exception (RSMo 558.019). Repeat offenders are required to serve 85% of their sentence before parole eligibility for dangerous felony offenses, including murder, rape, and assault causing serious physical injury (RSMo 558.019, RSMo 556.061). 

SB 888, signed into law on April 7, 2026, restructures MO's TIS requirements by offense classification rather than prior prison commitments effective January 1, 2028 (Supplementary Table 1). For example, today, a first-time class B felony offender would receive a minimum 5 year sentence without a TIS requirement. Starting January 1, 2028, a first-time class B felony offender will receive a minimum 5 year sentence with a 50% TIS requirement. 

TIS requirements are applied to violent crimes. 

TIS requirements vary by state. Of MO’s neighboring states:  

• AR, IL, IA, KS, KY, NE, OK and TN require 100% service for capital and first-degree murder, attempted murder, and rape of a minor under the age of 12. 

• Five of those states (AR, IL, KY, OK and TN) apply 85% TIS requirements to sexual offenses and violent felonies involving death or serious injury. 

• KS caps earned good-time credit at 15-20% of the sentence depending on offense severity, 

• KS requires 80% TIS for lower-severity offenses like burglary of a dwelling and 85% for robbery or aggravated robbery (K.S.A. 21-5807, 21-5420). 

• NE requires 80% TIS for felonies with MM sentences of over 20 years, such as second-degree murder. 

• IA requires 70% TIS for violent and sexual offenses, including second-degree murder and sexual offenses against children. 

• IL requires 75% TIS for drugs and weapons offenses and 50% for all other felonies. 

All neighboring states and MO increase MM sentence lengths for repeat or habitual offenders (AR, IA, IL, KS, KY, MO, NE, OK, TN). 

There is no clear link between MM or TIS and recidivism rates. 

Recidivism is the return to criminal activity after release, measured through rearrest, reconviction, or reincarceration (National Institute of Justice n.d.). For more information, see the Science Note Recidivism. 

MO bordering state recidivism rates declined from 2019 to 2025 regardless of sentencing law changes. Individual data for KY, IA, and MO shows a net decline in recidivism rates in each state (Figure 1). KY's recidivism rate declined from 49% to 37%, IA's from 39% to 33%, and MO's from 41% to 31% (KY DOC 2025, IA Open Data 2025, MO DOC 2025). IA barred earned-time reductions for certain MMs in 2024, and KY expanded its 85% TIS requirement to more offenses and ended earned credits for violent offenders (HB 5 2024, HB 2194 2024). MO’s sentencing laws remained unchanged during this period. AR, IL, and KS also saw recidivism decline from 2019 to 2022, with unchanged sentencing laws (Figure 1). The limited data available for NE, from 2019 to 2021, shows the same trend. 

Figure 1. Recidivism rates in MO and neighboring states, 2019–2025. Recidivism rates reflect the percentage of released offenders reconvicted, rearrested, or reincarcerated within 3 years of release, as reported by each state's Department of Corrections. IA barred earned-time reductions for certain mandatory minimums in 2024 (*), and KY expanded its 85% TIS requirement to more offenses and ended earned credits for violent offenders (^). Sources: AR DOC, IA DM, IL DOC, KS DOC, KY DOC, MO DOC, NE DOC. 

Data on the effect of MM and TIS on recidivism rates is mixed. In AZ, offenders with TIS requirements were 23% more likely to return to prison for a new conviction than those without (Macdonald 2024). Federal offenders sentenced to more than five years were 18–29% less likely to be rearrested than those with shorter sentences (USSC 2022). In MO, 59% of felony offenders sent to prison for any length of time were charged with a new offense within two years, compared to 34% of those placed on probation (Spohn & Holleran 2002). 

Supplementary Table 1. MO mandatory minimum sentences and time served changes to take effect January 1, 2028. Sources: RSMo 558.011, SB 888.

References

21 OK Stat § 51.1 (2025). Second and subsequent offenses after conviction of felony.
https://www.oklegislature.gov/OK_Statutes/CompleteTitles/os21.pdf

21 OK Stat § 701.9 (2025). Punishment for murder.
https://www.oklegislature.gov/OK_Statutes/CompleteTitles/os21.pdf

730 ILCS 5/3-6-3 (2021) Rules and regulations for sentence credit.
https://www.ilga.gov/documents/legislation/ilcs/documents/073000050k3-6-3.htm

730 ILCS 5/5-5-3.2 (2025). Factors in aggravation and extended-term sentencing.
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Adult Individuals in Custody on June 20, 2025 (2025) IL Department of Corrections (IL DOC).
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AR Code § 5-4-606 (2020) Life imprisonment without parole.
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https://revisor.mo.gov/main/OneSection.aspx?section=556.061

RSMo 558.011 (2021) Sentence of imprisonment, terms — conditional release.
https://revisor.mo.gov/main/OneSection.aspx?section=558.011&bid=50128

RSMo 558.016 (2024). Extended terms for prior criminal conduct — definitions — sentencing.
https://revisor.mo.gov/main/OneSection.aspx?section=558.016&bid=54807

RSMo 558.019 (2024) Prior felony convictions, minimum prison terms — prison commitment defined — dangerous felony, minimum term prison term, how calculated — sentencing commission created, members, duties — expenses — cooperation with commission — restorative justice methods — restitution fund.
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